How to use prediction markets during the 2022 midterm elections

The idea behind prediction markets is the “wisdom of the crowds’ ‘ – that if you get enough people to make a prediction about the outcome of a certain question, the aggregate of their wisdom will get you close to the truth. This is simple on it’s face, but complicated when you take into account all of the different factors that go into a multi-faceted decision like making 2022 midterm election predictions. 

Still, election betting sites like PredictIt, “the stock market for politics,” gives users a platform to make real money off of their wisdom – the more informed and accurate their predictions, the more accurate the markets and the more money they can make. 

So how can you make the most out of the markets during the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential elections on political betting sites? The best way to improve your accuracy is by reducing bias and noise, and increasing the information you take in. Common biases in political betting include confirmation bias – seeking out information that confirms your pre-existing beliefs – and coverage bias, where the media influences our opinion of political topics to the extent to which they are covered. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. 

New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania, author of Expert Political Judgement, found that the people who can predict the future best have a reasonable level of intelligence, search for information, change their minds when the evidence changes and think of possibilities rather than certainties. The best advice for people who want to become better forecasters is to be more open-minded and try to be aware of and strip out cognitive biases. 

The financial incentive on political betting sites helps to increase interest in the topic, and by doing so increase the liquidity and volume. That can transform prediction markets from the theoretical world of usefulness and the practical world of small-time gambling into serious markets that deliver useful information. 

Interest in political betting sites has increased over the last several years when research was released suggesting that prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than traditional polls and the forecasts produced are less biased and more informed. 

With so many federal and state elections happening in the 2022 midterm elections, there will be plenty of opportunities on political betting sites to make a few bucks (or more!) if you remember to recognize and ignore your biases to the best extent possible and to make sure you’re well informed.

New Polling in New Hampshire Senate Race – get more insights about political betting odds

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu hasn’t yet announced his candidacy as a 2022 Senate challenger to incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), but according to new polling if he was to run the two would start the race in a dead heat. With a 50-50 split in the Senate, every race in the 2022 midterm elections means the difference between which party will control the upper chamber of Congress and makes for interesting political betting odds on races across the country. 

Democrats currently have de-facto control, with 50 Senators who caucus with the Democrats and the tie-breaking power of Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris. But not every Democratic senator is on board with President Joe Biden’s agenda and spending priorities, which means they need to expand their numbers to have a better chance of getting anything passed. It’s also possible to get in on the political betting trend on Biden’s economic agenda on PredictIt. 

In a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, Sununu garnering 45% support among likely voters to Hassan’s 42%, with 6% preferring another candidate and 6% undecided. The results are in line with prior polling from July showing Sununu ahead of Hassan, 49% to 48%. 

Sununu isn’t the only Republican who would have a strong run against Hassan in the 2022 midterm election. Retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc, the only Republican who has formally declared his candidacy, has climbed to within 5% of Hassan – 42% to 47% for Hassan. And those numbers are narrowing – just three months ago Hassan led Bolduc by 10%, with 51% to 41%. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s (R) name has also been thrown out as a potential challenger to the seat that Hassan won from her in 2016, and polling in that match-up is tied – with Hassan at 44% and Ayotte at 43%. 

Both parties, and special interest groups on each side, have already been pouring money into attack ads in the Granite State more than a year ahead of the midterm elections, impacting voter opinions of both Hassan and Sununu, who Democrats see as the biggest threat should he decide to get in the race. The political prediction markets set the betting odds that Sununu wins the Republican nomination if he decides to run, and that would be enough to turn the seat over to the GOP. Unlike casino games, Political prediction markets are based on data and are highly correlated to political science and data.

Keep your eye on New Hampshire as a potential Republican flip in the 2022 midterm elections, which could potentially turn the chamber in favor of the conservative party. You can translate your new knowledge on the Granite State 2022 senate race into real money on the political betting website, PredictIt. 

Biden approval rating rcp – What Biden’s falling ratings mean for 2022 midterms

What Biden’s falling ratings mean for 2022 midterms

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped to 48%, the lowest it’s been during his term so far, according to new polling. Public polling firm Morning Consult found that amid the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Afghan military and government, 49% now say they disapprove of Biden. There are other ongoing factors that may have also contributed to this shift in numbers, such as the economy and pandemic recovery, but it remains to be seen what, if any, impact it will all have on 2022 election predictions and beyond. 

Among Democrats, President Biden’s approval rating has fallen from 90% to 87% and from 16% to 11% with Republicans. Independents gave Biden an approval rating of 41%, a two-point drop from a few weeks prior. Morning Consult noted that before Kabul fell to the Taliban, Biden still had a net-positive approval rating of 51%. There are other polls that put Biden’s net approval rating closer to 49% or as low as 41% in the Afghanistan aftermath. 

More than a year out from the midterm elections, it’s impossible to know for sure how to make 2022 election predictions – or even 2024 presidential election predictions – based on Biden approval rating rcp. Since 2009, presidential approval ratings have fit a consistent pattern. Members of the president’s party really like him and members of the opposition really don’t. That has resulted in approval ratings that generally operate within a very narrow range. Any changes usually come from a group of independents, who are more likely to poll against the president in office and his party, so we generally have ended up with approval ratings that hover near 50% or slightly below. More likely, what we see as notable changes in approval are in the degree of approval. The Economist and YouGov do a poll every two weeks in which they break down Biden’s approval rating into four categories: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Notably, we’ve seen a plunge in the strong support for Biden among Democrats. 

In a sign that the falling Biden approval rating isn’t directly associated with only his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, there are signs that overall approval began to drop shortly after June 21 when there was a strong correlation between the re-emergence of COVID-19 cases and a decline in views of how he was handling the pandemic. Learn more about political betting odds

These numbers may not seem relevant to 2024 presidential election predictions, but if you’re a moderate Democrat looking to be re-elected in a purple district, a drop in the presidential approval rating when the president is a member of your party may compel you to change the way you make decisions about how you vote on legislation in order to secure your job for another term. Presidential approval ratings also offer an insight into how the midterms will turn out. If Biden’s approval rating holds, history suggests that Democrats could lose 30 seats in the House – far more than are needed to lose their majority. 

So, while the 2024 presidential election may not be impacted by Biden’s approval rating today, there are serious implications for the Democratic Party in the 2022 midterm election and will change election predictions down the ticket. Still unknown is how Biden’s approval ratings will move over the next year. 


Newsom Recall Odds

Newsom recall odds too close for comfort for Democrats ahead of 2022 midterms

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has kicked off an unprecedented campaign to defend himself against a recall attempt that could be the largest voter mobilization effort in state history, but political betting sites and polling shows troubling signs of recall odds showing the race will be too close for comfort for Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Is it too late for the governor to mobilize enough support to bring the odds back in his favor? 

In California, recalling a governor takes a simple majority of the vote, but only a plurality of votes for a replacement candidate to win. With 46 challengers on the ballot, 49.9% of the electorate could vote to keep Newsom, and he could still lose to a replacement supported by only a fraction of the electorate. Newsom’s fate rides entirely on turnout. 

The Ballotpedia Power Index (BPI) estimates that the Newsom recall odds are at 27%, while the odds of him being retained are 73%. The BPI is “an election forecasting tool that factors in polling averages from RealClearPolitics and share prices on political betting site PredictIt to project the overall chances of an outcome occurring in an election.” As of Aug. 20, the BPI gives Newsom recall odds a 40% chance. 

Ironically, Trump’s absence from public office could be what takes Newsom out. Democrats turned out in record numbers when they had Trump to vote against, but the California recall is one of the first, large-scale tests of voter enthusiasm in the post-Trump era. The Newsom recall election is laying bare just how difficult it may be for the party to motivate its base without Trump as a foil heading into the 2022 midterms

Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder has emerged as the front-runner to replace Newsom, should the recall succeed; and the governor has focused his campaign messaging on painting Elder as an even more extreme version of Trump. Still, polls show that support for Elder is around 20% – by far the highest polling alternative in the race. Given the way recall elections work in California, Elder has a not insignificant chance of replacing Newsom. That’s why Newsom is encouraging voters to check “no” on the first question asking if voters would like to remove him from office and leave the second question blank. It’s a gamble, but it might just work. The two sides have less than 20 days to chase 20.6 million ballots that have not yet been returned. 

Even if Newsom is successful, as is expected, the competitiveness of the contest on political betting sites and seen in other polling is the latest indicator that turnout gains made by Democrats nationally during the Trump era may be unsustainable. This will have significant implications for Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections next year. 

It’s not just California. In a special election in May in a Texas House District Trump carried by just 3% in 2020, the top Democratic candidate failed in a low-turnout contest to even advance from the all-party primary. And in a recent Connecticut election, a Republican won a special election for a state Senate seat in a district Biden carried by 20% in 2020. learn more about political betting odds at


Kamala Harris 2024 – The 2024 US presidential election predictions

It is unusual for an incumbent president to lose re-election if he runs again – especially to the vice president – but that’s exactly what political betting markets are saying about the 2024 US presidential election. Betting markets in Europe and ones like PredictIt in the US show Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 US presidential election over both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be the Republican nominee if he decides to run). Biden has recently moved back into the lead by a small margin in some trading markets, but that is still much closer than the norm, especially this far out from a re-election campaign.  

Speculation about Biden’s health, and the fact that he’ll be 81-years-old at the end of his first term, have fueled rumors since the early days of his candidacy that the president won’t run for a second term. Biden and Harris have so far seemed to show a close partnership, with Harris providing a boost in both polling and fundraising. Harris was also a Democratic primary candidate herself in 2020, so people know she wants the job. President Biden says that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, but this far out from candidate announcements and primary races, people on political betting markets are willing to play to small market swings. For example, a few months into Biden’s presidency he was captured tripping while walking up the stairs of his airplane, followed by rumors that avoiding walking in front of the press meant he may have trouble walking. During that time,  

Will Kamala Harris run in 2024?

Harris remained in the lead in the markets speculating on who would be the Democrat’s 2024 nominee for the presidential election.   

Age may also come to be a factor in which party takes control of the Senate next year. One of the Senate’s oldest members, Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who is 87-years-old, has announced he’s retiring at the end of his current term. He’s one of five Republican senators who have announced they won’t be running in the 2022 midterms. This is important because incumbent status gives candidates a significant advantage in elections. Two of the other oldest senators, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who is also 87, and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) who is 81, are also rumored to be considering retirement. In Grassley’s case, for example, he would be the sixth Republican leaving his seat and would make it significantly harder for his party to win a Senate majority in the midterm elections.  

How age-related factors will play into the 2024 US presidential election, and 2022 midterms is still very much up for debate, but that hasn’t stopped traders on political betting sites from getting in on the early action.  




2022 midterms predictions – Republicans battles

A Battle for the Soul of the GOP

The battle embroiling the House Republican caucus this week came to a close this morning when Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was voted in as the party’s House Conference chair – replacing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) as the highest-ranking Republican woman in the chamber. The vote to remove Cheney took only 15 minutes after weeks of nasty infighting over conflicting visions for the immediate future of the Republican Party.

The anti-Cheney crowd supports moving the party leadership firmly in support of former President Donald Trump while pivoting attention away from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and toward becoming a united front against President Joe Biden’s agenda. Many representatives, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who lobbied for Stefanik ahead of this morning’s vote, believe that removing a staunch Trump critic from her leadership role was the only way forward if Republicans hope to take the majority in the 2022 midterms. The hope is that it will take some of the heat off members being constantly pressed about their position on the Jan. 6 riot and Trump’s actions surrounding the election.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
But Cheney has no intention of letting this fight go, and now that she is out of leadership there is nothing holding her back, telling reporters after the vote to oust her earlier this week that she “will do everything I can to ensure that the former president never again gets anywhere near the Oval Office.”
“We cannot both embrace the ‘big lie’ and embrace the Constitution…the nation needs a strong Republican Party…a party based on fundamental principles of conservatism.” – Rep. Liz Cheney
With that, Cheney has set herself up as one of Trump’s most well-known and outspoken opponents as we head into the 2022 midterm elections in which both parties have all of Congress on the line. Republicans only need a handful of seats to win the House majority, and only one in the Senate.
Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?
Some Republicans, more privately than publicly, are expressing concern over the vote to remove Cheney, viewing it as a troubling sign of Trump’s continued grip over the party – which at this point can hardly be denied. Right now should be an easy time for the party out of power to unify in opposition, but Republican leaders and potential 2022 midterm candidates will continue to cater to Trump as long as they are worried that their rank-and-file voters will punish them for disloyalty.

So Republicans have a difficult line to walk. They may not be able to survive a primary without Trump’s support (or at least not his ire), but that loyalty could kill them in a general election. A NBC News poll last month found that Trump’s favorability rating was down to 32% among all voters and 14% among independents.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: Traders are banking on a split Congress after 2022’s midterm elections.
We can look to Virginia’s Republican nominating convention last weekend for a look at how this dynamic could play out over and over again between now and the 2022 midterms, particularly in blue-leaning states. Republicans nominated Glenn Youngkin, a voter integrity advocate who has so far refused to say that Biden won the 2020 election fairly, to be their candidate for governor. In his statement responding to Youngkin’s nomination, the likely Democratic nominee, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, mentioned Trump’s name three times in as many sentences. A preview of how Democrats plan to campaign in the general election.

This is a concern Republicans are facing as they attempt to challenge Democratic-held Senate seats in Arizona and Georgia, as well as hold onto Pennsylvania. We’ve already seen this dynamic play out in 2018 in South Carolina and 2020 in Colorado, and with partisan tensions even more heightened there’s no reason to expect next year will be different.


Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?
Market Pulse: The common consensus is that if Trump decides to run for the Republican nomination for president in 2024, he’ll likely win. After spending most of April trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as the likely GOP nominee , Trump is back on top at 27¢, currently 6¢ ahead of DeSantis. If he does run, PredictIt traders are favoring the odds that Trump files in 2022, rather than this year, though there’s not strong confidence with either market at this point.

As for the Virginia gubernatorial election, traders are virtually certain that McAuliffe will be the Democrat’s nominee, at 98¢. Republicans gained slightly this week following the party’s nominating convention, likely a small showing of confidence in their pick, but overall Democrats are heavily favored to win the governor’s seat – at 82¢ to Republicans’ 22¢.

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman at the press conference with Gov. Tom Wolf. Photo: Office of Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf / Flickr / CC BY 2.0
Here’s a look at how these dynamics could play out in a few key Senate races that we’re keeping an eye on:

In Pennsylvania, a Republican primary to replace the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is already heating up, with candidates competing to tie themselves to Trump for an eventual endorsement. There’s former congressional candidate and close friend of Donald Trump Jr., Sean Parnell, who announced his candidacy earlier this week. Trump’s former ambassador to Denmark, Carla Sands, who is considering a run, and former lieutenant governor candidate Jeff Bartos, who is a Trump supporter and was the first top-tier candidate to enter the race.

Trump lost the state to Biden in November 2020, but Republicans in Pennsylvania tend to strongly support the former president and his economic message. The Democratic side is also expected to be contentious, with Lt. Gov John Fetterman, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh already declared. Fetterman, the current front-runner has come under fire from state party leaders who argue he doesn’t represent the party’s diversity.

To learn more about betting odds

Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA) lead their respective primary races.
Redistricting will also be a factor since Pennsylvania is one of seven states that will lose a congressional seat, and the resulting impact is expected to have implications for Democrats more so than Republicans. The likely outcome could push Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) to run for statewide office, making him a likely favorite in the Democratic primary.

Market Pulse: As of now, Democrats are strongly favored to gain control of Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat next year with a 20¢ advantage. This market has remained pretty consistent and closes out this week with 62¢ to 41¢ that Democrats will win. The Democratic primary market is playing out as expected, with Lamb gaining on Fetterman since the beginning of May as rumors heat up that he will attempt the jump to statewide office. Fetterman still leads with 66¢ to Lamb’s 34¢ as of Thursday. In a distant third is Kenyatta with 6¢, followed closely by Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA) with 5¢.