So how can you make the most out of the markets during the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential elections on political betting sites? The best way to improve your accuracy is by reducing bias and noise, and increasing the information you take in. Common biases in political betting include confirmation bias – seeking out information that confirms your pre-existing beliefs – and coverage bias, where the media influences our opinion of political topics to the extent to which they are covered. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. 

New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania, author of Expert Political Judgement, found that the people who can predict the future best have a reasonable level of intelligence, search for information, change their minds when the evidence changes and think of possibilities rather than certainties. The best advice for people who want to become better forecasters is to be more open-minded and try to be aware of and strip out cognitive biases. 

The financial incentive on political betting sites helps to increase interest in the topic, and by doing so increase the liquidity and volume. That can transform prediction markets from the theoretical world of usefulness and the practical world of small-time gambling into serious markets that deliver useful information. 

Interest in political betting sites has increased over the last several years when research was released suggesting that prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than traditional polls and the forecasts produced are less biased and more informed. 

With so many federal and state elections happening in the 2022 midterm elections, there will be plenty of opportunities on political betting sites to make a few bucks (or more!) if you remember to recognize and ignore your biases to the best extent possible and to make sure you’re well informed.

Democrats currently have de-facto control, with 50 Senators who caucus with the Democrats and the tie-breaking power of Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris. But not every Democratic senator is on board with President Joe Biden’s agenda and spending priorities, which means they need to expand their numbers to have a better chance of getting anything passed. It’s also possible to get in on the political betting trend on Biden’s economic agenda on PredictIt. 

In a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, Sununu garnering 45% support among likely voters to Hassan’s 42%, with 6% preferring another candidate and 6% undecided. The results are in line with prior polling from July showing Sununu ahead of Hassan, 49% to 48%. 

Sununu isn’t the only Republican who would have a strong run against Hassan in the 2022 midterm election. Retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc, the only Republican who has formally declared his candidacy, has climbed to within 5% of Hassan – 42% to 47% for Hassan. And those numbers are narrowing – just three months ago Hassan led Bolduc by 10%, with 51% to 41%. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s (R) name has also been thrown out as a potential challenger to the seat that Hassan won from her in 2016, and polling in that match-up is tied – with Hassan at 44% and Ayotte at 43%. 

Both parties, and special interest groups on each side, have already been pouring money into attack ads in the Granite State more than a year ahead of the midterm elections, impacting voter opinions of both Hassan and Sununu, who Democrats see as the biggest threat should he decide to get in the race. The political prediction markets set the betting odds that Sununu wins the Republican nomination if he decides to run, and that would be enough to turn the seat over to the GOP. Unlike casino games, Political prediction markets are based on data and are highly correlated to political science and data.

Keep your eye on New Hampshire as a potential Republican flip in the 2022 midterm elections, which could potentially turn the chamber in favor of the conservative party. You can translate your new knowledge on the Granite State 2022 senate race into real money on the political betting website, PredictIt. 

More than a year out from the midterm elections, it’s impossible to know for sure how to make 2022 election predictions – or even 2024 presidential election predictions – based on Biden approval rating rcp. Since 2009, presidential approval ratings have fit a consistent pattern. Members of the president’s party really like him and members of the opposition really don’t. That has resulted in approval ratings that generally operate within a very narrow range. Any changes usually come from a group of independents, who are more likely to poll against the president in office and his party, so we generally have ended up with approval ratings that hover near 50% or slightly below. More likely, what we see as notable changes in approval are in the degree of approval. The Economist and YouGov do a poll every two weeks in which they break down Biden’s approval rating into four categories: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Notably, we’ve seen a plunge in the strong support for Biden among Democrats. 

In a sign that the falling Biden approval rating isn’t directly associated with only his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, there are signs that overall approval began to drop shortly after June 21 when there was a strong correlation between the re-emergence of COVID-19 cases and a decline in views of how he was handling the pandemic. Learn more about political betting odds

These numbers may not seem relevant to 2024 presidential election predictions, but if you’re a moderate Democrat looking to be re-elected in a purple district, a drop in the presidential approval rating when the president is a member of your party may compel you to change the way you make decisions about how you vote on legislation in order to secure your job for another term. Presidential approval ratings also offer an insight into how the midterms will turn out. If Biden’s approval rating holds, history suggests that Democrats could lose 30 seats in the House – far more than are needed to lose their majority. 

So, while the 2024 presidential election may not be impacted by Biden’s approval rating today, there are serious implications for the Democratic Party in the 2022 midterm election and will change election predictions down the ticket. Still unknown is how Biden’s approval ratings will move over the next year. 

The Ballotpedia Power Index (BPI) estimates that the Newsom recall odds are at 27%, while the odds of him being retained are 73%. The BPI is “an election forecasting tool that factors in polling averages from RealClearPolitics and share prices on political betting site PredictIt to project the overall chances of an outcome occurring in an election.” As of Aug. 20, the BPI gives Newsom recall odds a 40% chance. 

Ironically, Trump’s absence from public office could be what takes Newsom out. Democrats turned out in record numbers when they had Trump to vote against, but the California recall is one of the first, large-scale tests of voter enthusiasm in the post-Trump era. The Newsom recall election is laying bare just how difficult it may be for the party to motivate its base without Trump as a foil heading into the 2022 midterms. 

Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder has emerged as the front-runner to replace Newsom, should the recall succeed; and the governor has focused his campaign messaging on painting Elder as an even more extreme version of Trump. Still, polls show that support for Elder is around 20% – by far the highest polling alternative in the race. Given the way recall elections work in California, Elder has a not insignificant chance of replacing Newsom. That’s why Newsom is encouraging voters to check “no” on the first question asking if voters would like to remove him from office and leave the second question blank. It’s a gamble, but it might just work. The two sides have less than 20 days to chase 20.6 million ballots that have not yet been returned. 

Even if Newsom is successful, as is expected, the competitiveness of the contest on political betting sites and seen in other polling is the latest indicator that turnout gains made by Democrats nationally during the Trump era may be unsustainable. This will have significant implications for Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections next year. 

It’s not just California. In a special election in May in a Texas House District Trump carried by just 3% in 2020, the top Democratic candidate failed in a low-turnout contest to even advance from the all-party primary. And in a recent Connecticut election, a Republican won a special election for a state Senate seat in a district Biden carried by 20% in 2020. learn more about political betting odds at Predictit.org.

It is unusual for an incumbent president to lose re-election if he runs again – especially to the vice president – but that’s exactly what political betting markets are saying about the 2024 US presidential election. Betting markets in Europe and ones like PredictIt in the US show Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 US presidential election over both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be the Republican nominee if he decides to run). Biden has recently moved back into the lead by a small margin in some trading markets, but that is still much closer than the norm, especially this far out from a re-election campaign.  

Speculation about Biden’s health, and the fact that he’ll be 81-years-old at the end of his first term, have fueled rumors since the early days of his candidacy that the president won’t run for a second term. Biden and Harris have so far seemed to show a close partnership, with Harris providing a boost in both polling and fundraising. Harris was also a Democratic primary candidate herself in 2020, so people know she wants the job. President Biden says that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, but this far out from candidate announcements and primary races, people on political betting markets are willing to play to small market swings. For example, a few months into Biden’s presidency he was captured tripping while walking up the stairs of his airplane, followed by rumors that avoiding walking in front of the press meant he may have trouble walking. During that time,  

Will Kamala Harris run in 2024?

Harris remained in the lead in the markets speculating on who would be the Democrat’s 2024 nominee for the presidential election.   

Age may also come to be a factor in which party takes control of the Senate next year. One of the Senate’s oldest members, Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who is 87-years-old, has announced he’s retiring at the end of his current term. He’s one of five Republican senators who have announced they won’t be running in the 2022 midterms. This is important because incumbent status gives candidates a significant advantage in elections. Two of the other oldest senators, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who is also 87, and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) who is 81, are also rumored to be considering retirement. In Grassley’s case, for example, he would be the sixth Republican leaving his seat and would make it significantly harder for his party to win a Senate majority in the midterm elections.  

How age-related factors will play into the 2024 US presidential election, and 2022 midterms is still very much up for debate, but that hasn’t stopped traders on political betting sites from getting in on the early action.