It is unusual for an incumbent president to lose re-election if he runs again – especially to the vice president – but that’s exactly what political betting markets are saying about the 2024 US presidential election. Betting markets in Europe and ones like PredictIt in the US show Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 US presidential election over both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who is expected to be the Republican nominee if he decides to run). Biden has recently moved back into the lead by a small margin in some trading markets, but that is still much closer than the norm, especially this far out from a re-election campaign.
Speculation about Biden’s health, and the fact that he’ll be 81-years-old at the end of his first term, have fueled rumors since the early days of his candidacy that the president won’t run for a second term. Biden and Harris have so far seemed to show a close partnership, with Harris providing a boost in both polling and fundraising. Harris was also a Democratic primary candidate herself in 2020, so people know she wants the job. President Biden says that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, but this far out from candidate announcements and primary races, people on political betting markets are willing to play to small market swings. For example, a few months into Biden’s presidency he was captured tripping while walking up the stairs of his airplane, followed by rumors that avoiding walking in front of the press meant he may have trouble walking. During that time,
Will Kamala Harris run in 2024?
Harris remained in the lead in the markets speculating on who would be the Democrat’s 2024 nominee for the presidential election.
Age may also come to be a factor in which party takes control of the Senate next year. One of the Senate’s oldest members, Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who is 87-years-old, has announced he’s retiring at the end of his current term. He’s one of five Republican senators who have announced they won’t be running in the 2022 midterms. This is important because incumbent status gives candidates a significant advantage in elections. Two of the other oldest senators, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who is also 87, and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) who is 81, are also rumored to be considering retirement. In Grassley’s case, for example, he would be the sixth Republican leaving his seat and would make it significantly harder for his party to win a Senate majority in the midterm elections.
How age-related factors will play into the 2024 US presidential election, and 2022 midterms is still very much up for debate, but that hasn’t stopped traders on political betting sites from getting in on the early action.