will newsom be recalled?

Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?

A long-awaited deal to encourage California’s schools to reopen by April 1 may provide families hope, but it’s unlikely to improve California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) political standing as a March 17 recall deadline fast approaches. Political Betting Sites and prediction markets shows high probability for Newsom to be recalled


It has been almost a year since California schools shut their doors indefinitely to combat the coronavirus. In the months since, the protracted closures have become a primary source of the public anger propelling an effort to recall Newsom from office.

Newsom hailed the deal Monday for “creating conditions where we expect in-person instruction,” but political observers said the legislation itself might not yield quick dividends for the embattled governor especially since closed schools aren’t opening overnight.

The California Teachers Association emphasized the distance still to travel to open schools saying Monday that the bill “gets us one step closer” but also emphasizing the role of local unions in reopening schools and even cited the 1976 state act that affords them negotiation rights.

Will Newsom be recalled?

While Governor Newsom hopes the deal will entice school districts and unions to act, the deal is unlikely to affect the recall’s chances of qualifying for the ballot. Proponents have been gathering signatures for months, capitalizing on widespread discontent that spiked during a second lockdown this winter. They claim they have already collected 1.8 million signatures — easily crossing the 1.5 million threshold to trigger an election — and the mid-March deadline to submit signatures will likely arrive before parents see much concrete reopening progress.

Market Pulse: The only question that matters at the moment is how many valid signatures will be announced. While proponents of the Newsom recall claim to have crossed the threshold needed to recall the governor, the exact figure won’t be known for at least two weeks. according to prediction markets, Traders are pricing a recall at 85¢ — 3¢ shy of the market high of 88¢ achieved on Feb. 13.

If you want to learn more about prediction markets and political betting odds go to PredictIt.org now.

Prices at 5 a.m. EST: Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?